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Originally Posted by TragicallyUnhip  She'd have to win them by a very wide margin, like 60-something percent to 30-something percent according to what I've read. It's possible, but she hasn't really been pulling those kinds of margins so far. Given that he's steadily been increasing his numbers in every demographic, I'd be getting nervous right about now if I were Hillary. |
I don't think either candidate is coming out of Texas with a significantly larger chunk of delegates than the other candidate because of the ridiculously weird delegate apportionment guidelines. It isn't done proportional to the percentage of popular vote at all, it's a formula based on the amount each district voted in the last couple elections(2004 & 2006). Hillary could sweep the whole Rio Grande Valley and the hispanic vote throughout the state and still not come out with a significantly larger Texas delegate count.
From another board I venture on:
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Here is an example of the formula used in the Texas Election Code:
Let P equal a given district's percentage of the statewide Democratic vote in the last gubernatorial election, and let V equal that district's percentage of the total statewide vote for the Democratic nominee in the last presidential election (district vote/state vote). ( P + V) divided by 2 = that district's percentage of the total number of Delegates to be elected by the senatorial districts, as opposed to the number to be elected at-large.
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