Survey shows Kerry with 3% lead in Cali

[Dionysos]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Kerry: 49%
Bush: 46%

Source Survey USA, August 18th

From the site:
"A very strange Survey USA poll puts Bush within 3% of Kerry in California, 49% to 46%. I don't believe that for a second. Remember that polls are always reported with a margin of error (MoE). For state polls, it is nearly always 3.5% to 4%, so we don't report it. What this means is that if you repeat the poll over and over, 95% of the time the difference between the true (unknown) mean and the measured mean will be no more than the MoE. A consequence of this is that 5% of the time, the measured mean will be off by more than the MoE. I don't know if this is the case here, but the data are very suspect. There is no reason to think Survey USA is cheating here. This may just be a statistical outlier."

FWIW, they still show the electoral count as follows:
Kerry 286 Bush 233

[Funkenstein]

Let's see how that electoral standing holds in a few months. . .

[Adam D]

I don't see what's so hard to believe about that. First, consider all of the drama about the recall in that state that bashed and blamed Davis and Democrats in general for the state's problems. Second, if you look at the makeup of the state, only the large cities on the coast (and Sacramento, I would imagine) are very liberal. The rest of the state is actually pretty conservative. California is depicted as entirely liberal because the population of the large cities outnumbers the rest of the state and because people care more about Los Angeles than a small farm town in the interior of the state.