anyone seen this stuff before?

[bushsucks]

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/

and if so, what do you think?

there is also a spot in the new rolling stone about just this same thing.

[defcon]

Nothing new. Been around for years and as the cost of development of new sites has gone up considerably there are many who believe we are on the back side of it. It is obvious to all with sense unless major policy changes are made globally that there will be wars and maybe even the last war fought over this very issue.

[transparentaura]

Call me a doomsayer, but I'm sure I'm not the only person who remembers what happened last time oil prices stayed at this level in real dollars for a significant length of time. Raging inflation followed by a severe recession and double digit unemployment. So why then, having lived through this in the not so distant past, do we continue to increase oil consumption, concentrate on drilling for more instead of seriously focusing on alternatives? Why do we have a tax incentive to buy SUVs instead of one to buy hybrids or use public transportation?

[matt]

easy answer for that one mr transparentaura, oil company's do have some pretty influential lobbyists. they are kinda tied in to the current administration pretty tight

[defcon]

It is all about the money. Auto companies and oil companies are invested heavily in the current technology. But they are not solely at fault. They may be making the bigger badder SUV but w/o a demand they would not make them. We as a country and a culture have lost the ability to comprehend that sacrifice is a necessary part of existence. We don't want to give up some space in our car, or the ability to sit up high to get better gas mileage. That would mean a sacrafice and heaven forbid we give anything up. There is a minority that will do that willingly and a majority that will need to be forced to do it.

[defcon]

Originally Posted by transparentaura

Why do we have a tax incentive to buy SUVs instead of one to buy hybrids or use public transportation?

There is a 2000 tax deduction for hybrids. The suv deduction was a loophole on a farm equipment deduction and could only be taken for work vehicles. You could not buy a h2 and write it off unless your car is a work car. Public transportation is tax subsidized. The savings are large if you can get by w/o a car. However Chicago and NYC are the only places I know you can get by w/o a car in the states.

Originally Posted by transparentaura

Call me a doomsayer, but I'm sure I'm not the only person who remembers what happened last time oil prices stayed at this level in real dollars for a significant length of time. Raging inflation followed by a severe recession and double digit unemployment. So why then, having lived through this in the not so distant past, do we continue to increase oil consumption, concentrate on drilling for more instead of seriously focusing on alternatives? Why do we have a tax incentive to buy SUVs instead of one to buy hybrids or use public transportation?

No doubt the SUV "light truck" rule is bizarre at best and the need to delevope alternative fuels is great.

I understand that a plan has been struck and is in the process of being funded that will help establish a basic foundation and infrastructure for fueling stations... one of the major hurdles in copversion to hydro fuels.... or so I've heard.. (joint Gov't / private project - anyone have any better info that that vague bit of recolection I seem to have?)

[bushsucks]

Originally Posted by E-brake

I heard this guy on the radio a couple weeks ago. He was pretty smart and up to date on alternative fuels and after hearing him speak about the energy policys in China and such you realize that there isnt a lot to worry about.

We have so many alternative and renuable resources to fall back on we will not be hitting a brick wall anytime soon, he laid out how the lack of oil will raise the prices and slowly ween us off dependance on it and we can move on to other sources. He showed how the future of oil will be for chemical and plastics not gas, and says that in the future people will think that we were morons for just burning it and not using it for its chemical properties.

In China at this very moment they are making gasoline out of Coal, they have the only operating coal to Gas plant in the world and they are way ahead of us on alternative fuels as well. Kinda sad that the largest polluting industrialized nation on earth has a better alternative fuel plan in place than we do. Anyway this guy said that there is enough coal under utah and Wyoming to supply the entire worlds needs for 2,000 years...and he doesnt think that we would ever get to using it. After the declining oil production he thinks that people will shy away from gasoline and move on to other ways of powering our cars and factories.

He showed that there will be no crisis because it will take 200 years to use up the oil to the point that we cant just burn it as we please....its going to be a slow and steady conversion to other resources that we wont even notice in our day to day lives.

yes there are other fuels.

but to keep the 5-7% yearly growth going?

to keep every american in their "way of life"

not a chance in hell.

this thread from dc board buzzlife, goes thru most of the feuls and provides talking points.

check out the thread....http://buzzlife.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55018



btw, san francisco is number one i would think for public trans, at least when i lived there in 2000 it was.



hey ebrake.who was this "guy"


wasn't rush was it?



here is a great page for all other energy but gas crowd.


http://www.hubbertpeak.com/apollo2/

lots of info, but please, always double check any info.

[Leo]

Originally Posted by defcon

There is a 2000 tax deduction for hybrids.

I believe it's $1500 now and decreases $500 every year until it's gone. It's really more of an early adopter incentive than anything else.

[bushsucks]

so in other words, we will painlessly change over from oil to other sources with no problems what so ever huh?


any expert testomony on any of this or just you thinking thats what will happen?

do 85% of experts believe this theory of your seemless change over?

or is it about 5% of experts believe it?

[zerojunkie]

Originally Posted by E-brake

No a slow gradual change fueled by supply and demand not an emergancy crisis. If you look back at the history of the world this is nothing new and has happened many times over with other fuel sources.

It wasnt that long ago that a large part of the worlds economy was driven by whale blubber and whale oils, then we came to a time when the entire wolrds ecomony was fuled by Coal, etc......this is nothing new, we will get off oil and move on to something else but the change will be driven by profit not by crisis, and you will not even notice the change in your day to day life.

Your fear mongoring sounds just like all the rest of the dooms day morons that have existed throught time. I am no mroe afraid of the world running out of oil than I was afraid of Y2k, or being nuked by the commies in the 80's.

Try using a little common sense before you jump on the bandwagon.

YES! nice post! I think bushsucks' has watched the prison planet series one too many times. I agree 99% though, the one percent of disagreement comes from the statement we won't see it in our day-to-day lives. I do think we're going to start paying a bit more at the pump as the years go on. But it's likely these costs will be offset by things like hybrid technologies.

[Keith P]

No a slow gradual change fueled by supply and demand not an emergancy crisis. If you look back at the history of the world this is nothing new and has happened many times over with other fuel sources.

It wasnt that long ago that a large part of the worlds economy was driven by whale blubber and whale oils, then we came to a time when the entire wolrds ecomony was fuled by Coal, etc......this is nothing new, we will get off oil and move on to something else but the change will be driven by profit not by crisis, and you will not even notice the change in your day to day life.

Your fear mongoring sounds just like all the rest of the dooms day morons that have existed throught time. I am no mroe afraid of the world running out of oil than I was afraid of Y2k, or being nuked by the commies in the 80's.

Try using a little common sense before you jump on the bandwagon.

Ok if this is the case. Here's the common sense...shouldn't we begin to make the move to alternative fuel(a steadily renewable source) regardless of how long it will take to deplete all of the worlds resources?

[bushsucks]

Originally Posted by E-brake

No a slow gradual change fueled by supply and demand not an emergancy crisis. If you look back at the history of the world this is nothing new and has happened many times over with other fuel sources.

It wasnt that long ago that a large part of the worlds economy was driven by whale blubber and whale oils, then we came to a time when the entire wolrds ecomony was fuled by Coal, etc......this is nothing new, we will get off oil and move on to something else but the change will be driven by profit not by crisis, and you will not even notice the change in your day to day life.

Your fear mongoring sounds just like all the rest of the dooms day morons that have existed throught time. I am no mroe afraid of the world running out of oil than I was afraid of Y2k, or being nuked by the commies in the 80's.

Try using a little common sense before you jump on the bandwagon.

i'm not on any bandwagon, just tring to find out some anwsers.

which you gave me, thanks.


a couple more questions.

i understand about the through out history we used other fuels,etc

i also understand the population back then, and the amount of people using those fuels were not as many as we have today.


nor did those fuels power or produce as much as oil, and gas do today.

what are these fuels that your talking of, and how are they going to replace the oil and gas we use everyday?