steve forbes says oil industry bubble will burst in a year - Dallas Dance Music - Dallas nightlife, music, tickets, and more

The Real Rick Springfield · 08-31-05, 03:31 PM

dunno how much weight you might put in his thoughts, but here's what he says:

Forbes Predicts Oil Bust, $35 by Next Year

Forbes: Coming Oil Bust Will Dwarf Dot-Com Disaster

Steve Forbes, editor-in-chief of Forbes magazine, predicts that skyrocketing oil prices are just temporary -- and a massive price collapse will dwarf the Dot-Com crash that began in 2000.

In Sydney, Australia this week for a global conference of CEOs, the respected financial editor said the that the price of oil has inflated into an unsustainable and speculative market bubble - and he says that when this bursts, it will make the Dot-Com crash "look like a picnic."

The paper quotes Forbes as saying that the price of oil (which rose above $70 this week) had been inflated by speculators and would soon begin a rapid slide.

"While there is a lot of talk in my country, the U.S., about the housing bubble, I think the real bubble, to be blunt, is in the price of oil," he said.

"It's a huge bubble. I don't know what's going to pop it, but eventually it will pop. The price has to be bought down to earth, and when it does there's going to be a lot of yelping from the hedge fund managers."

Forbes said that speculation on oil hitting $100 a barrel was misplaced.

"(But) if it does, the crash is going to be even more spectacular and will make the tech bubble look like a picnic," he said.

He also believes that the price of oil will decline significantly in 2006.

"I'll make a bold prediction: I think in 12 months, you're going to see oil down to $35, $40 a barrel," Forbes said. "In the meantime, it's a huge drain, more a psychological drain (on the economy), but it's not forever. This thing is not going to last."

Forbes blames the oil price spike on rising inflation and aggressive buying on the part of burgeoning Pacific Rim countries.

"China and India are buying more of the stuff. As the global economy expands, more energy will be consumed," he said.

"But if you look at the price of oil three years ago, it was $20 or $25 a barrel. Supply and demand might have shot it up to $30, $35 a barrel. The rest of it is inflation."

Forbes spoke to The Australian just as news was drifting in regarding the damage sustained to the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Industry observers say that energy companies such as BP, Chevron and Shell have been forced to shut down offshore platforms, which account for 25% of U.S. domestic oil and gas output.

Editor's Note:
Financial Intelligence Report Predicted in April 2004 That Oil Would Exceed $60 Per Barrel. The Same Report Agrees With Forbes That Oil Will Drop to $40 a Barrel in the Next 12 Months. Get the Full Details -- Go Here Now.

PETA · 08-31-05, 03:33 PM

I've heard it'll take 4-6 years but that production levels will come on line to meet this new demand... it just takes a while.... Iraq, Caspian Sea, new fields in Alaska etc etc are not yet producing even though located and the infrastructure to get the oil out is being built

I like Forbes' prediction better

Ash · 08-31-05, 03:34 PM

I don't beleive Steve Forbes

The Real Rick Springfield · 08-31-05, 03:46 PM

oil prices drop?

oil market crash?

i don't know if ya'll lived in the area in the mid-to-late 80s when the oil industry last had it's crash, but it was ugly. the economy in this region is closely tied to the petroleum industry (although not as much as it used to be). if there is a bubble pop, we're going to feel it.

forbes always seemed a little screwy to me, so i question his opinions/thoughts.

john

PETA · 08-31-05, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by john_vella

oil prices drop?

oil market crash?

i don't know if ya'll lived in the area in the mid-to-late 80s when the oil industry last had it's crash, but it was ugly. the economy in this region is closely tied to the petroleum industry (although not as much as it used to be). if there is a bubble pop, we're going to feel it.

forbes always seemed a little screwy to me, so i question his opinions/thoughts.

john

The crash was also tied directly to California real estate speculation, dollar for dollar tax shelters and the poorly regulated savings and loans industry

The Real Rick Springfield · 08-31-05, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xian

The crash was also tied directly to California real estate speculation, dollar for dollar tax shelters and the poorly regulated savings and loans industry

1 - 2 punch says wha?

i heard greenspan warning of a housing bubble popping, too.
and now we have a natural disaster to couple with an oil crash.

john

HomoSexualPredator · 08-31-05, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by john_vella

1 - 2 punch says wha?

i heard greenspan warning of a housing bubble popping, too.
and now we have a natural disaster to couple with an oil crash.

john

I don't think it takes a prophet to see that one coming.

I'm sure it has nothing to do with the series of articles that the DMN ran a few weeks ago about the cost of prosperity in collin county, either.

bfp · 08-31-05, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HomoQueer

articles that the DMN ran a few weeks ago about the cost of prosperity in collin county, either.

Out of curiosity -what did it say?

HomoSexualPredator · 08-31-05, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bfp

Out of curiosity -what did it say?

How can I carefully word this: Statistically, the "prosperity" (read: what I consider to be an extravagent lifestyle) many enjoy in the burbs is bought by overextending credit, more so than many other counties with comparable incomes, etc.

PETA · 08-31-05, 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HomoQueer

How can I carefully word this: Statistically, the "prosperity" (read: what I consider to be an extravagent lifestyle) many enjoy in the burbs is bought by overextending credit, more so than many other counties with comparable incomes, etc.

my wife and I were shocked by this when we moved down from Minneapolis... Dallas - land of the $30k millionaire.

When we bought our first new car ever you could tell the salesman was think, 'yup that sure is a nice car...... to buy your sixteen year old daughter"

I have a friend who lived in an apartment for 3.5 years without ever cooking himself a meal.... and others who are in the same boat.

We have friends whose credit card bills approached the cost of our new car and they weren't atypical....

We went to a recruiting dinner for my wife's firm... the valet drops off our car (a Jetta) and then the clerk's ... a freaking Mercedes...

I could go on and on and on and on.... but I'll spare you guys

david austin · 08-31-05, 04:19 PM

I wouldn't be surprised to see the bubble burst. There is simply no valuation for oil to be at 60+ a barrel. Supply is not short and disruptions should be based on actual events (Katrina) instead of risk managers (Hedging futures)

The big problem IMO is the EPA's unwillingness to budge when it comes to building a new refinery. If we are at max production capacity and there is a short supply reduction do to an act of god/accident/terrorism we are stuck against a wall. Oil is a limited fuel source but at the same time it's still going to be around for a few more generations. So why force our hand when unforseen acts happen. It ends up costing everyone from the consumer to the retailer to the wholesaler. Which is why fund/hedge managers can basically speculate on oil/gas futures so easily.

bfp · 08-31-05, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xian

When we bought our first new car ever you could tell the salesman was think, 'yup that sure is a nice car...... to buy your sixteen year old daughter"

Was it John Voight's old la baron?

J. Fees · 08-31-05, 04:23 PM

wierd how all the oil prices went up when GW got in office? He has some oil ties right? Dick Cheney, he has some interests in oil too, i think....

david austin · 08-31-05, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J. Feez

wierd how all the oil prices went up when GW got in office? He has some oil ties right? Dick Cheney, he has some interests in oil too, i think....

Is it also weird that Republicans are almost 100% for more refineries to be built in America to help raise the cap we have on production?? Which would in turn lower prices and create a larger cushion in the supply chain for unforseen acts of nature like Katrina.

Edwin Watson · 08-31-05, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bfp

Was it John Voight's old la baron?

hahahaha...now that is funneh!

08-31-05, 03:31 PM	#1 (permalink)
The Real Rick Springfield Join Date: Nov 2001 Posts: 8,427	steve forbes says oil industry bubble will burst in a year dunno how much weight you might put in his thoughts, but here's what he says: Forbes Predicts Oil Bust, $35 by Next Year Forbes: Coming Oil Bust Will Dwarf Dot-Com Disaster Steve Forbes, editor-in-chief of Forbes magazine, predicts that skyrocketing oil prices are just temporary -- and a massive price collapse will dwarf the Dot-Com crash that began in 2000. In Sydney, Australia this week for a global conference of CEOs, the respected financial editor said the that the price of oil has inflated into an unsustainable and speculative market bubble - and he says that when this bursts, it will make the Dot-Com crash "look like a picnic." The paper quotes Forbes as saying that the price of oil (which rose above $70 this week) had been inflated by speculators and would soon begin a rapid slide. "While there is a lot of talk in my country, the U.S., about the housing bubble, I think the real bubble, to be blunt, is in the price of oil," he said. "It's a huge bubble. I don't know what's going to pop it, but eventually it will pop. The price has to be bought down to earth, and when it does there's going to be a lot of yelping from the hedge fund managers." Forbes said that speculation on oil hitting $100 a barrel was misplaced. "(But) if it does, the crash is going to be even more spectacular and will make the tech bubble look like a picnic," he said. He also believes that the price of oil will decline significantly in 2006. "I'll make a bold prediction: I think in 12 months, you're going to see oil down to $35, $40 a barrel," Forbes said. "In the meantime, it's a huge drain, more a psychological drain (on the economy), but it's not forever. This thing is not going to last." Forbes blames the oil price spike on rising inflation and aggressive buying on the part of burgeoning Pacific Rim countries. "China and India are buying more of the stuff. As the global economy expands, more energy will be consumed," he said. "But if you look at the price of oil three years ago, it was $20 or $25 a barrel. Supply and demand might have shot it up to $30, $35 a barrel. The rest of it is inflation." Forbes spoke to The Australian just as news was drifting in regarding the damage sustained to the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Industry observers say that energy companies such as BP, Chevron and Shell have been forced to shut down offshore platforms, which account for 25% of U.S. domestic oil and gas output. Editor's Note: Financial Intelligence Report Predicted in April 2004 That Oil Would Exceed $60 Per Barrel. The Same Report Agrees With Forbes That Oil Will Drop to $40 a Barrel in the Next 12 Months. Get the Full Details -- Go Here Now.

08-31-05, 03:34 PM	#3 (permalink)
Ash Was up above it. Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: L.A., New York, Chicago, Boston, Seattle, Forney Posts: 27,058	I don't beleive Steve Forbes __________________ My milk snake brings all the girls to the yard.

08-31-05, 04:19 PM	#11 (permalink)
david austin Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Dallas Posts: 8,657	I wouldn't be surprised to see the bubble burst. There is simply no valuation for oil to be at 60+ a barrel. Supply is not short and disruptions should be based on actual events (Katrina) instead of risk managers (Hedging futures) The big problem IMO is the EPA's unwillingness to budge when it comes to building a new refinery. If we are at max production capacity and there is a short supply reduction do to an act of god/accident/terrorism we are stuck against a wall. Oil is a limited fuel source but at the same time it's still going to be around for a few more generations. So why force our hand when unforseen acts happen. It ends up costing everyone from the consumer to the retailer to the wholesaler. Which is why fund/hedge managers can basically speculate on oil/gas futures so easily. __________________ -273 = absolute zero. You can only go up from there.

08-31-05, 04:23 PM	#13 (permalink)
J. Fees R.I.P. Pimp C Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Cross from Zippers Posts: 14,929	wierd how all the oil prices went up when GW got in office? He has some oil ties right? Dick Cheney, he has some interests in oil too, i think.... __________________ i'm zone blazed brah. http://soundcloud.com/feezy33

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08-31-05, 03:33 PM	#2 (permalink)
PETA an apparition Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 38,665	I've heard it'll take 4-6 years but that production levels will come on line to meet this new demand... it just takes a while.... Iraq, Caspian Sea, new fields in Alaska etc etc are not yet producing even though located and the infrastructure to get the oil out is being built I like Forbes' prediction better

08-31-05, 03:46 PM	#4 (permalink)
The Real Rick Springfield Join Date: Nov 2001 Posts: 8,427	oil prices drop? oil market crash? i don't know if ya'll lived in the area in the mid-to-late 80s when the oil industry last had it's crash, but it was ugly. the economy in this region is closely tied to the petroleum industry (although not as much as it used to be). if there is a bubble pop, we're going to feel it. forbes always seemed a little screwy to me, so i question his opinions/thoughts. john