Venezuela’s Presidential Elections: Will the Opposition Accept the Results?

[joe mac]

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/articles.php?artno=1894

Chavistas, as supporters of President Hugo Chavez are commonly called, turned the country’s capital, Caracas, into a sea of red last Sunday in a final mass rally in advance of Sunday’s presidential elections. According to the rally’s organisers over 2 million people responded to their call to bring la marea roja (the red tide) to Caracas. I asked one Chavista at the march, 25 year old university student Germania Fernandez, what she felt was at stake in Sunday’s election, “Well, we, and millions of people around the world, including, I’m sure, many people in England believe that another world is possible, a world free from war, poverty and hunger. Here in Venezuela the Chavez government along with the majority of the people in our country are fighting hard to build this new world, despite the attempts of the old elite and the US government to prevent us from succeeding….On Sunday we’ll be voting for the chance to carry on building this new world and I’m certain that we’ll win. Just look at how many people are here!”

Germania’s optimism seems to be well-placed. Most independent polls are pointing to a big win for Chavez: an Associated Press (AP) commissioned poll released last week showed 59 percent support for Chavez, with his nearest challenger, the governor of the oil-rich western state of Zulia, Manuel Rosales, trailing with 27 percent. However, there is a wide-spread feeling among Chavistas that the opposition will try everything in their arsenal of dirty tricks to sabotage the election result.

The margin of Chavez’s victory will be important for many reasons. Crucially, a victory of less than 10 percent difference will open up the possibility that the opposition will manipulate the election results by alleging government fraud and then refuse to recognise the results. A likely scenario would then be that some sectors of the opposition declare themselves in “revolt” against the government and pursue a campaign of civil disobedience centered in the affluent eastern sector of Caracas and the state of Zulia - Rosales’ stronghold.

However, whatever Chavez’s margin of victory, past experience tells us that the more radical elements of the opposition will refuse to accept any sort of Chavez victory. Up to now these radical sectors have mostly advocated abstention, but this has increasingly morphed into what has been described as a “have their cake and eat it” strategy of simultaneously participating in the elections and discrediting the electoral process, thereby allowing themselves the possibility of crying fraud when results don’t go their way.

In a remarkable interview aired on the private anti-government news channel, Globovision, earlier this month, prominent opposition journalist and businessman, Rafael Poleo, outlined a "plan" for the days surrounding the elections. In chilling terms Poleo, who was involved in the 2002’s short-lived coup against Chavez, described how Venezuelans should go and vote for the opposition on Sunday, while saying that on the following day, it would be “up to Manuel Rosales to lead the protests against the fraud that has been set up.” Finally, on the 5th of December a call would be made to the military high command to “decide if it is going to continue forcing the Venezuelan opposition to put up with an embarrassing regime."

While the possibility of a military coup seems unlikely in Venezuela at the moment, the scenario that aims to conjure up the impression of a close electoral contest in order to then cry fraud is in full effect. At the helm of the campaign is Washington-based polling firm Penn, Schoen & Berland, whose “exit polls” during the 2004 recall referendum where used by US financed anti-government organisations such as ‘Súmate’ to claim the referendum results were fraudulent – a claim they maintain to this day despite the fact that the results were certified by countless international election observers. As Chris Carlson points out in a recent article published on the Venezuelanalysis website, “in the lead up to the December 2006 elections, Penn, Schoen & Berland has been instrumental in shaping public perception. In a series of election polls widely covered in the private media, the polling firm has consistently shown that Chavez's lead is shrinking, and the opposition is gaining momentum, while all of the other surveys done over the last few months show that Chavez maintains a wide lead of between 20 and 30 percent. Last week, Mr. Schoen, of Penn, Schoen & Berland, released the findings of his latest survey on the Venezuelan evening news. As expected, Penn's survey showed that Chavez's opposition, Manuel Rosales, was nearly tied in the polls with Chavez. Chavez, it showed, had only 48% support, and his opponent Manuel Rosales had gained significantly up to 42%. This poll is now being reported across all the major Venezuelan media, to a huge audience, showing that Rosales was gaining more and more everyday, and could possibly win.” The ultimate aim of this campaign is to create the impression in the public opinion that Rosales has a real chance of winning the election, and once this perception is created, all that really matters is what the population believes. If this strategy works, it might be possible to engineer large protests and even riots to challenge the electoral results.

Manuel Rosales has been vague about whether he will accept the electoral results or not, qualifying his acceptance of the final results on whether he believes fraud was committed on the day. It is worth remembering that while Rosales is widely considered by conservative circles as the candidate of Venezuela's “democratic opposition”, calling Venezuela's opposition democratic is slightly ironic given that Rosales himself was involved in a short lived 2002 coup in which dozens of people were killed. In fact Rosales was filmed embracing the coup president, Pedro Carmona, shortly before Carmona issued decrees that dissolved the Supreme Court and the National Assembly, When asked why he backed Carmona, Rosales responded, "One makes mistakes in life, but what is definitely important is when one makes a decision like that, in the midst of confusion, that it be made in good faith."

Chavistas on the other hand appear to have good reason to support their candidate on Sunday. According to Venezuela's most recent census, the number of households living in poverty has dropped from 49 percent in 1998, the year before Chavez took office, to 33.9 percent in early 2006. Households living in extreme poverty dropped from 17.1 percent to 10.6 percent during the same period. And during Chavez's presidency the poorest quintile of the population has seen its consumption power more than double. Even the World Bank announced in June this year that Venezuela had achieved "substantial imporvements in the fight against against poverty." If you contrast this with the fact that between 1970 and 1998, the year before Chavez came to power, per capita income in Venezuela fell by a staggering 35 percent, the worst decline in the region and one of the worst in the world, it becomes quite easy to understand why Chavez has won 10 electoral contests during his nearly eight years in power.

It is real gains such as the results of the government’s poverty alleviation efforts that make people like Germania Fernandez and millions of other government supporters vote for Hugo Chavez in electoral process after electoral process. On Sunday, all independent polls forecast that Germania and her friends will be celebrating Hugo Chavez’s 11th electoral victory. The fear is that the opposition won’t accept the results graciously.

[I AM EL-NINO]

I hope they overthrow Chavez.

[joe mac]

Originally Posted by I AM EL-NINO

I hope they overthrow Chavez.

why?

they already tried an unconstitutional coup de' tat in 2002

and what happened? the people put him back in power in 2 days.

they tried a national strike, that didn't work.

they tried a recall referendum, that failed, and was monitored by the EU and carter agency

the private sector has grown 10% that is 5x more than the U.S.

the poverty level dropped 20%, that never happened under any other venezuela president.

[I AM EL-NINO]

I still hope he is brought down.
Today or tommorow will be fine.
And.....your figures are not correct accroding to the Chronicle article on the front page today in Houston.

[joe mac]

Originally Posted by I AM EL-NINO

I still hope he is brought down.
Today or tommorow will be fine.
And.....your figures are not correct accroding to the Chronicle article on the front page today in Houston.

what figures

p.s. houston chronicle is conservative

[prince vlad]

despite what many people think of Chavez, he is extremely popular in Venezuela. There is growing opposition against him but not enough to create the necessary push to oust him. Like it or not, Chavez is here for another six years!!!

[I AM EL-NINO]

Originally Posted by joe mac

what figures

p.s. houston chronicle is conservative

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAHHAH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA AHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHNow I know your just playing if you think thats true. How could I ever take you even half serious anymore?

[I AM EL-NINO]

Originally Posted by prince vlad

despite what many people think of Chavez, he is extremely popular in Venezuela. There is growing opposition against him but not enough to create the necessary push to oust him. Like it or not, Chavez is here for another six years!!!

In the same article out of the HOUSTON CHRONICLE they said that Chavez is trying to revoke the Venezuela constitution where a president can only serve two six year terms. He wants to stay in power there for much longer then another term Im afraid. And those poor idiots wanna keep him there as long as the handouts keep coming.

[joe mac]

Originally Posted by I AM EL-NINO

In the same article out of the HOUSTON CHRONICLE they said that Chavez is trying to revoke the Venezuela constitution where a president can only serve two six year terms. He wants to stay in power there for much longer then another term Im afraid. And those poor idiots wanna keep him there as long as the handouts keep coming.

the constitution was changed by the people

[I AM EL-NINO]

Originally Posted by joe mac

the constitution was changed by the people

It hasnt been changed yet Joe Quack.

[joe mac]

Originally Posted by I AM EL-NINO

It hasnt been changed yet Joe Quack.

it was changed back in... 1999
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Venezuela

by the people

[I AM EL-NINO]

Then why would the Chronicle lie about it huh?
I think your gettin thngs mixed up.
I didnt read your link either.
Wouldnt waste my time on it.
Die Chavez Die.

[molecule]

Originally Posted by joe mac

why?

they already tried an unconstitutional coup de' tat in 2002

lets not forget it was a failed coup attempt in 1992 that gained Chavez his popularity amongst the poor. Chavez tried first to take power by military force.

[molecule]

Power Grabs and Murder thanks to Chavez's totalitarianism

http://www.pulitzercenter.org/openitem.cfm?id=315

Chávez's critics call the emerging system chaos at best because the councils are funded without oversight by a rising dictatorship benefiting from soaring oil profits. The result: an erosion of Venezuela's existing city and state governments.

"They are creating a parallel state with no rules," said Roberto Briceno, a sociologist at the Central University of Venezuela in Caracas. Briceno believes the councils are federally funded havens of political support for Chávez with no room for dissenting voices.

"The consejo comunals are going to 'disappear' all the local authorities; all the local powers, the mayors, they are going to have no power at all," he said. "It's an elimination of all the local mediums of power, and that means the elimination of politics, and that is totalitarianism, even if the president is charismatic and is good, or whatever, even if he is a saint, it is still totalitarianism."

Briceno maintains that an initial result of the Chávez government's favoritism of the new neighborhood-based system has been the breakdown of law and order, which depends on support and funding from the existing municipal government.

According to the Central University's Criminal Justice Institute, 4,550 homicides occurred in Venezuela during 1998, when Chávez was first elected. In 2003, there were 13,288. To hide the problem, Briceno said, the government is "trying to change the statistics system in order to create a new reality based on Chávez's own perception of the society."

"We know the crime situation is worsening, but it's impossible to establish that," he said. "The statistics have even disappeared from the website of the justice ministry; in general there is no information about violence."
.........................


"Over the past eight years, Venezuela has had so much oil revenues, but it has failed to use those revenues to generate productive jobs, stable jobs and companies and industry," Meza said. "Instead it went for the cooperative model."

"When you belong to a co-op, you're not really a worker, you're a partner, so you're not entitled to minimum wage or benefits or severance, or Christmas pay or bonuses," he said. "People feel disheartened, and they just abandon the co-ops."

[Nyteshade]

That's just another example of the failed neo-liberal model or something. The US is interfering. I won't show any proof to back up my claims beyond www.google.com