When will Bush attack Iran?

[Damnsammit]

It seems possible that this could happen seeing as how diplomatic resolutions have not been proving to do much.

That coupled with the recent build up of troops in Kirkuk, located in a relatively stable region of Iraq close to the Iranian border, I think it is possible for a strike in 2008. It would be an extremely poor decision in my opinion due to the amount of stress the Army and Marines are already under due to multiple (and lengthy) deployments.

Surely Bush wouldn't try to wage war on another country, would he?

[Nyteshade]

If he's even halfway smart, he'll get Isreal to do it for us.

[Funkenstein]

Originally Posted by Damnsammit

Surely Bush wouldn't try to wage war on another country, would he?

Smart money (and a smarter Cabinet) would say "No". With less than a year left in term, the current Republican worries, and the current light that America holds on itself after 6 years of turmoil, I don't think it is an awesome likelihood to expect.

If I've ever wanted to not be proved wrong, mark this as one of those moments.

As for Pat's inference, they will only patrol and not go all out. They are smarter than that and can milk the role of the victim a bit longer on the world stage before they decide to launch a campaign of THAT stature.

[Damnsammit]

Originally Posted by Nyteshade

If he's even halfway smart, he'll get Isreal to do it for us.

Yeah, but they will need our help, because if Israel gets distracted with Iran then they are going to be opened up to more annoying Hezbellah-type attacks from the Muslim countries in the region.

I think Israel will be the primary air force, and we would help on the ground, thus the excessive build up of ground troops in Kirkuk. That way Israel would have their ground forces primarily for defense in their own country.

I am just rather uncertain as to how thin our Army can be stretched.

[-m-]

Originally Posted by Nyteshade

If he's even halfway smart, he'll get Isreal to do it for us.

That's what I think too. Although I don't think anyone desires more instability over there. It would have to be a pretty serious sitch for Israel to start trading licks with them. Iran's not a bunch of cheap shot brick throwing savages like their neighbors. Plus I really don't want to see the western world making enemies with the people of Iran, who are actually very liberal and friendly towards us in their mindset. It's just the people in charge over there who are the shitheads.

[Nyteshade]

Originally Posted by -m-

That's what I think too. Although I don't think anyone desires more instability over there. It would have to be a pretty serious sitch for Israel to start trading licks with them. Iran's not a bunch of cheap shot brick throwing savages like their neighbors. Plus I really don't want to see the western world making enemies with the people of Iran, who are actually very liberal and friendly towards us in their mindset. It's just the people in charge over there who are the shitheads.

True. I'll go back to my original idea from a couple years ago. Send a few small teams to make certain prominent figures "disappear" and various structures "accidentally catch fire."

[johnny861]

Let's pull some stats about Iran's military capability.

Iran has two parallel military forces, the Artesh and the AGIR, each with their own different branches (ie. Army, special forces, Navy and Air Force)

Just the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, their defensive military, here's the following stats:

Quds Force estimated 2,000 or anywhere from 3,000 to 50,000
Basij 90,000 full-time, 300,000 reservists, 11,000,000 potential strength (2005 est.)
IRGC Navy 20,000 (2005 est.)
IRGC Air Force (unknown)
IRGC Ground Forces (unknown)


Now, the regular military forces stats:
Airforce - Forces uknown, but potential inventory of aircraft could be as many as 2,740
Army - 350,000 personnel
Navy - personnel: 13,400 navy, 2,600 marines, aviators 2.000


Like South Africa, they've produce their own military hardware, missles, tanks, aircraft, submarines, etc.

On top of their own hardware, they of course have foreign military hardware, mostly russian, Mirages, Mig-29s, Mig-27s, Su-25s, etc...

The rest of their military, the world knows little about.

Whether it is Israel, the US or a joint coalition, fighting Iran in a conventional war is picking one hell of a fight.

[PETA]

No chance we will commit ground troops to try to occupy Iran. We cannot do it even if we were not committed elsewhere.

We may conduct air raids and send in small teams for specific demolition / assassination / kidnapping missions but I'd be surprised if we did any on a scale that required our admitting that we were doing it. Hell, we were (maybe still) engaged in a spy war w/Iran. We grabbed a bunch of intel officers from Iran.

Most likely scenerio.... we equip and aid the Israelies to take care of the Iranian nuke program, leave it smoldering and be done with it a la Osirak. Anybody remember Osirak?

Originally Posted by johnny861

Let's pull some stats about Iran's military capability.

Iran has two parallel military forces, the Artesh and the AGIR, each with their own different branches (ie. Army, special forces, Navy and Air Force)

Just the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, their defensive military, here's the following stats:

Quds Force estimated 2,000 or anywhere from 3,000 to 50,000
Basij 90,000 full-time, 300,000 reservists, 11,000,000 potential strength (2005 est.)
IRGC Navy 20,000 (2005 est.)
IRGC Air Force (unknown)
IRGC Ground Forces (unknown)


Now, the regular military forces stats:
Airforce - Forces uknown, but potential inventory of aircraft could be as many as 2,740
Army - 350,000 personnel
Navy - personnel: 13,400 navy, 2,600 marines, aviators 2.000


Like South Africa, they've produce their own military hardware, missles, tanks, aircraft, submarines, etc.

On top of their own hardware, they of course have foreign military hardware, mostly russian, Mirages, Mig-29s, Mig-27s, Su-25s, etc...

The rest of their military, the world knows little about.

Whether it is Israel, the US or a joint coalition, fighting Iran in a conventional war is picking one hell of a fight.

Iran cannot compete with our aircraft nor our missile technology. A couple carrier groups would be enough. We can, relatively, safely pound their air defense systems and in short order own the air over Iran. Once that's done we can go in and out in small numbers to conduct specific missions as we please. Or, bomb the fuck out of specific installations.

The Iranian Navy had challenged the US Navy within the Mullahs time in power... they didn't fair so well. They attacked a US ship - nearly sank it. In return we sank a bunch of theirs. Don't fuck with the US Navy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Prime_Chance
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Prime_Chance

[jaesun]

I say we just send some covert-ops fools to make sure a “random accident” happens to their only oil refinery.

[Damnsammit]

Originally Posted by xian

Iran cannot compete with our aircraft nor our missile technology. A couple carrier groups would be enough. We can, relatively, safely pound their air defense systems and in short order own the air over Iran. Once that's done we can go in and out in small numbers to conduct specific missions as we please. Or, bomb the fuck out of specific installations.

Just so long as we don't try to start OIF2 and try to occupy, it wouldn't be too much of a problem. The biggest problem would be the decreasing troop morale of our volunteer army that is severely over worked. Navy and Air Force missions could likely destroy any sort of uranium enrichment programs that are currently underway...

Originally Posted by xian

Don't fuck with the US Navy.

Yeah, I don't understand why countries would even try....

[Dionysos]

Originally Posted by Nyteshade

If he's even halfway smart,

I'll stop you right there.

[Nyteshade]

Originally Posted by Dionysos

I'll stop you right there.

I'll put huge emphasis on the word "if"

[Adam D]

We will not attack Iran. Period.

[Damnsammit]

Originally Posted by Adam D

We will not attack Iran. Period.

I hope not. I think France and Israel should take em out.

[DJ Finle]

Probably won't be Bush. The next president might do it though.