cycle of recession and growth in the u.s.

[john vella]

they had a nice graphic of this in the current issue of time, but i can't find it online anywhere.

dates with length in months
recessions in red

May 1937 to June 1938 13
June 1938 to Feb 1945 80
Feb 1945 to Oct 1945 8
Oct 1945 to Nov 1948 37
Nov 1948 to Oct 1949 11
Oct 1949 to July 1953 45
July 1953 to May 1954 10
May 1954 to Aug 1957 39
Aug 1957 to April 1958 8
April 1958 to April 1960 24
April 1960 to Feb 1961 10
Feb 1961 to Dec 1969 106
Dec 1969 to Nov 1970 11
Nov 1970 to Nov 1973 36
Nov 1973 to March 1975 16
March 1975 to Jan 1980 58
Jan 1980 to July 1980 6
July 1980 to July 1981 12
July 1981 to Nov 1982 16
Nov 1982 to July 1990 92
July 1990 to March 1991 8
March 1991 to March 2001 120
March 2001 to Nov 2001 8
Nov 2001 to Dec 2007 73
Dec 2007 to ??? 12?

so historically, the worst recession has been 16 months and we're 12 months into this one. will happy days return again in april or is this one going to be the mother of all recessions?

john

[MOM]

Dont forget about all those layoffs...we might not see the damage from that for a few more months...

[john vella]

Originally Posted by MOM

Dont forget about all those layoffs...we might not see the damage from that for a few more months...

so do you think it will go longer than 16 months because of that?

i'm FAR from having any real understanding of macro economics, but i have a bad feeling about this one. like it could last for a LOT longer.

john

[C-fer]

I could have sworn someone posted a graph showing this info not too long ago on here showing growth and recession periods from about 1900.

Can't find it right now but check some of the recent economy threads on here.

[tricky]

Originally Posted by DjKrispy

I could have sworn someone posted a graph showing this info not too long ago on here showing growth and recession periods from about 1900.

Can't find it right now but check some of the recent economy threads on here.

[david austin]

so is that chart using the dec 07 call of recession using the same data source for all other recessionary periods?


just saying it may not be fair data if all other periods are using the technical recession data of gdp contraction

[PETA]

Originally Posted by david austin

so is that chart using the dec 07 call of recession using the same data source for all other recessionary periods?


just saying it may not be fair data if all other periods are using the technical recession data of gdp contraction

was wondering... as I understood it we had a 21 month recession in the early 80s 81-82 iirc ... had huge unemployment, inflation shot back up and the prime lending rate was pretty rough too

[john vella]

Originally Posted by david austin

so is that chart using the dec 07 call of recession using the same data source for all other recessionary periods?


just saying it may not be fair data if all other periods are using the technical recession data of gdp contraction

i'll see if there's more info in the magazine. it's at home. this is what they had online:

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced that the U.S. economy has been in a recession since December 2007, its first since the technology bubble burst in 2001. While a recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP, the NBER measures other factors, like employment and income, which delayed its results. This downturn is so far the third longest since the Great Depression.

john

[C-fer]

Originally Posted by tricky

What the hell was the point in quoting me and putting that image up? I wasn't stating an opinion one way or the other, merely responding to vella about the graph he couldn't find.

I'm usually pretty intelligent on my remarks in this area of DDM, but I have no regret in saying you're a fucking idiot.

[john vella]

found the original site which looks even better.

http://wwwdev.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html

full data going back to 1854 on that page.

john

[C-fer]

Oh yea, here's the graph I was talking about. It's actually a graph of the stock market that xian posted a few days ago in this thread: http://www.dallasdancemusic.com/foru...ses-6-7-a.html

You could always plug in that info(in the first post of this thread) in excel and make a graph.