Big Gov't --Saviour of U.S. Economy?

[J. Fees]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/10/op....html?_r=1&hpw

So it seems that we aren’t going to have a second Great Depression after all. What saved us? The answer, basically, is Big Government.


Paul Krugman


Just to be clear: the economic situation remains terrible, indeed worse than almost anyone thought possible not long ago. The nation has lost 6.7 million jobs since the recession began. Once you take into account the need to find employment for a growing working-age population, we’re probably around nine million jobs short of where we should be.

And the job market still hasn’t turned around — that slight dip in the measured unemployment rate last month was probably a statistical fluke. We haven’t yet reached the point at which things are actually improving; for now, all we have to celebrate are indications that things are getting worse more slowly.

For all that, however, the latest flurry of economic reports suggests that the economy has backed up several paces from the edge of the abyss....... (more in link)

[david austin]

Hes a brilliant man no doubt.

Big Gov't is but a temp band aid.

The lynch pin is the American credit card thats essentially maxed out. Will China increase our limit? Or do we just sell the T-notes to our Primary Dealers only to buy them back with freshly minted government cash.

On another note. While we may not have the proverbial 'soup line', we will have a declining middle class and a further disconnect between the haves and have nots.

I love seeing people talk the market up without the consumer considering that we still need to de-leverage by nearly a DECADES worth of credit... oh... and the consumer is 70% of GDP. I almost had a heart attack when Bernanke himself talked of a 'jobless recovery'. Not sure what everyone is smoking but this isnt possible... PERIOD.

The idea of the bad getting less bad is better is a complete fallacy.

Some things to consider

-The market is trading at multiples even higher than they were at the highs of 2007 (when the markets were some 40% higher)
-Insiders are selling. Insider outflow was several times more than inflows over the last quarter.
-Lending is NOT happening despite what you see on the news.

And on a parting note... for those media soundbites that tout that the market is a leading indicator proving the recession is over... I guess it had a great outlook in the summer of 2008 right?

[david austin]

QE to wind down over the next three months.

Hmmm... Wonder what will happen to the addict after the free crack is taken away.

Fed cant have it both ways. QE essentially failed. Dollar continues to tank. Oil continues to rise. 30yr will likely go back above 6.5%.

Keep smoking those green shoots!!

[PETA]

Originally Posted by david austin

-Insiders are selling. Insider outflow was several times more than inflows over the last quarter.

wonderful

Originally Posted by david austin

-Lending is NOT happening despite what you see on the news.

Is that because the banks won't lenmd or because consumers won't borrow - it's not chicken and egg as much as which side of the puddle of mud you're on in the tug of war?

Originally Posted by david austin

And on a parting note... for those media soundbites that tout that the market is a leading indicator proving the recession is over... I guess it had a great outlook in the summer of 2008 right?

David... the Dow is over 9000+

[name change request]

the U.S. is going to have to take a backseat and let someone else take over as the protector of the world while we rebuild our country

[david austin]

Originally Posted by PETA

David... the Dow is over 9000+

With the highest forward P/E EVER printed (S&P wise)

Makes sense right!!

Essentially the market is pricing in 5% GDP growth every quarter for the next year.

Makes sense right!!

[PETA]

Originally Posted by name change request

the U.S. is going to have to take a backseat and let someone else take over as the protector of the world while we rebuild our country

lol - not gonna happen. Besides, the alternatives are much worse. One of the things that helps our economy is a stable place to trade. Weakness in the "protector" of the sheep makes hungry wolves more likely to attack. Its hard to make a buck when you're worried about having your shit stolen.

Originally Posted by david austin

With the highest forward P/E EVER printed (S&P wise)

Makes sense right!!

Essentially the market is pricing in 5% GDP growth every quarter for the next year.

Makes sense right!!

haha - our economy with 5% growth? Tankers don't corner very well nor do they start and stop easily.

[david austin]

Originally Posted by PETA

haha - our economy with 5% growth? Tankers don't corner very well nor do they start and stop easily.

EVERY QUARTER!

Think about that next time you hear some pundit saying 'the market is still cheap'

[name change request]

Originally Posted by PETA

lol - not gonna happen.

yeah, we have too much of an ego to ever let that happen

and who is trying to "steal our shit"? we have problems in this country that we need to focus on but we're too busy spending money helping others while spending money in all the wrong ways here at home.

and seriously David, why don't you get involved in govt if you have better solutions?

[PETA]

Originally Posted by name change request

yeah, we have too much of an ego to ever let that happen

Why do you think it has to be about ego?

Originally Posted by name change request

and who is trying to "steal our shit"? we have problems in this country that we need to focus on but we're too busy spending money helping others while spending money in all the wrong ways here at home.

I was speaking metaphorically. I'm saying that a world mostly at peace is a better world for business than a world slipping into chaos. The stability our military provides throughout the world helps prevent that slip into chaos in a way no other government can or will.

I agree that it sucks that we foot the bill but the alternative is worse.

Originally Posted by name change request

and seriously David, why don't you get involved in govt if you have better solutions?

lol - why would he take the paycut?

[name change request]

you can get involved in govt without giving up your lucrative career

[PETA]

Originally Posted by name change request

you can get involved in govt without giving up your lucrative career

If that were the case more people would do it.

It pays too little. It subjects one (more importantly one's family) to political bullshit. etc etc etc... not a job for anyone but true believers. We're lucky that some of them are competent and willing.

[name change request]

you can get involved without taking a job. you can go talk, influence, get involved on panels and shit like that.

this is a fact, not up for debate so stop trying to argue with me.

[PETA]

Originally Posted by name change request

you can get involved without taking a job. you can go talk, influence, get involved on panels and shit like that.

this is a fact, not up for debate so stop trying to argue with me.

It is anything but fact. I'm not trying to argue with you. I'm trying to explain to you why people with such refined and desireable skill sets are unlikely to do what you're suggesting.

These people work hard... very fucking hard. Ignoring the fact that gov't jobs pay way beneath market rate for experts... Those with the skills are unlikely to have the free time while people with the time generally won't have the skills to make the impact/influence you're looking for. That's why those positions are often filled with true believers... or the otherwise rich/independently wealty... eg, those who work for something to do rather than feed their family.

[BigBallinColin]

so should I start making bullets or canned food or canned bullets or the best option is bullet food?