Afghanistan's future in peril

[tricky]

Afghanistan's future in peril
Mass fraud and ballot-box stuffing in the recent elections has thrown international commitment to Afghanistan into peril, says guest columnist Ahmed Rashid.


Claims of mass fraud and ballot-box stuffing during the 20 August presidential elections has plunged Afghanistan into a deep political and constitutional crisis for which neither the Afghan leadership nor the Americans or the UN have any easy answer.
The rigging was assured months ago when President Hamid Karzai began to ally himself with regional warlords, drug traffickers and top officials in the provinces who were terrified of losing their jobs and their lucrative sinecures, if President Karzai lost.
The reports coming in from around the country but especially from the Pashtun south - the heartland that voted for Mr Karzai overwhelmingly in 2004 - are becoming more indisputable every day.
Supporters of both Mr Karzai and leading contenders like Dr Abdullah are all alleged to have carried out ballot-box stuffing after voting ended on 20 August.


“ There have to be Afghan partners on the ground to help implement a minimalist state building strategy ”

It is a sad denouement for a man whose humility and moderation touched everyone when he was chosen as interim president in the Bonn talks in 2001.
Despite Afghanistan's backwardness, only a democratic set-up can prevent a return to civil war and ethnic conflict.
However what is now at jeopardy is the entire international commitment to Afghanistan, the danger of ethnic and political warfare, assassinations and bombings between rival candidates and an increase in the Taliban-led insurgency as they smell victory.
Anger and criticism
Today there is a growing debate in Washington and European capitals about what constitutes success in Afghanistan, and whether it is worth backing a Afghan leadership which has shown itself unable to come up to the real task of leading.
In Washington there is for the first time anger and criticism at the Obama plan that was announced only in March.


Will American and European public opinion hold up long enough for his plan to work and how many more troops, how much more money will be needed?
Unfortunately the election results have only strengthened the arguments of many dissenters in Washington who are insistent that the Afghans are incapable of learning and unwilling to build a modern state and Afghan society should be left well alone.
Unfortunately the same dissenters do not sufficiently criticise the past policy failures of President George Bush which have led Afghanistan to this impasse and the dissenters do not offer solutions.
So what needs to be done?
Firstly the American and European people need to be told the truth.
How their governments have failed them in Afghanistan over the past eight years, why so little nation-building and reconstruction has been done, and why insufficient troops and money were spent in Afghanistan as compared to Iraq.
Governments also need to explain how the terrorist threat has grown and al-Qaeda now covers much of Africa and Europe while the Taliban have become a brand name that stretches deep into Pakistan and Central Asia, and in the future could possibly extend into India and China.
Secondly rebuilding the Afghan state and economy must be tackled at breakneck speed.
Much of this is now understood by President Obama. His plan, for the first time places emphasis on things like agriculture, job creation and justice. However will Obama be given the time to carry out his plans?
The insurgency can never be finished as long as the insurgents enjoy a safe haven.


The Afghan Taliban were made welcome in Pakistan in 2001 when they retreated from Afghanistan and are still made welcome because of a certain logic put forward by the Pakistan army, which mainly involves containing India's growing power in the region and in Afghanistan in particular.
President Bush treated then President Pervez Musharraf with kid gloves.
In recent months the army has now shifted its stance to take on the Pakistani Taliban in a determined fashion - since April the army has lost 312 soldiers and killed some 2,000 Pakistani Taliban.
Yet still there is no strategic shift by the army to take on the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda in their safe havens in the tribal areas that border Afghanistan.
No breakthrough
Despite the regional strategy that is being pursued by the US, there is still no breakthrough with Pakistan, while India acts tough towards Islamabad offering the Americans little room to manoeuvre.
There is no easy way out of this quandary except more time, greater trust-building and more international aid to Pakistan.
Lastly there have to be Afghan partners on the ground to help implement a minimalist state-building strategy.
Unfortunately President Bush ignored that for too long - the lack of good governance, the corruption, the growth of the drugs trade and the failure to build representative institutions were all ignored.
To emerge from this mess with even moderately credible Afghan partners will be extremely difficult, but it has to be done because without a partner the US becomes nothing but a naked occupation force which Afghans will resist and Nato will not want to be a part of.
The only answer once the final tally for the elections is made is a national government of all Afghan stake holders.


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Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/h...ia/8243307.stm

--

Gettin past the obvious and the reason we're still there...(Rummy/Bush...)

Place is an epic clusterfuck and no better than we first invaded. Should we just nuke 'em? no oil...fuck it

[PETA]

future peril?

that place is a snowball heading downhill and has been for some time

[johnny861]

peril is a favorite past-time in Afghanistan

[Hey Bubu]

Time to team AMERICA to step in.

[FarangBa]

No complaints from me... however:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8243276.stm

IF you read the fine print.

1) Any polling station which receives more than 95% votes for a single candidate, while receiving more than 100 votes total must be re-counted.
2) Appx 600 polling stations in question, while there are thousands throughout the country.

The body - which has been investigating hundreds of allegations of major poll fraud - also called for an audit in any polling station where 600 or more votes were cast.

But Afghan poll officials have also annulled about 200,000 ballots.

...the election commission has already thrown out results from 447 of the 26,000-plus polling sites because of fraud.

For Afghanistan... this is NOT the end of the world. Probably much better than expected.

[J. Fees]

heres my question. what in the hell are we really gonna do with that place? why do we need to be there, and how do we ever get out?

[Keith P]

Originally Posted by J. Fees

heres my question. what in the hell are we really gonna do with that place? why do we need to be there, and how do we ever get out?

Strategic standpoint and we don't. Afghanistan is dirt poor, there's hardly any educated living there. That country is going to need oversight for a long time.

[PETA]

Hey... that's Obama's "good war."

Think GW was wise to topple the Taliban and for the most part... get the fuck out? Think Obama is wise with his wish to escalate? If 300,000 Russians with zero supply line issues couldn't hold it why should we with less than 100,000?

It is a nightmare of logistics. We need to maintain a small seek and destroy presence that prevents any safe establishment of AQ or other terror groups... and otherwise let the Afgans deal with Afganistan... the greater worry is, of course, destabilizing Pakistan and their fucking nukes.

[FarangBa]

Originally Posted by J. Fees

heres my question. what in the hell are we really gonna do with that place? why do we need to be there, and how do we ever get out?

Well Fees, that depends on where you stand on the basic issues at hand. -Do you believe that Al Qaeda (headed by Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al Zawahiri) attacked NYC and the Pentagon from their Terrorist training base in Afghanistan?
-Do you believe that the Taliban (Religious Islamic extremists themselves) allowed Al Qaeda to move their camps from the Sudan to Afghanistan?
-Do you believe Terrorism Exists?
-Do you believe we are at war with Terrorists?

You see, I have to know where you stand on the issue before giving my opinon, because If you don't believe in the basic tenants that most Americans believe... there's no point responding because you are not in step with the rest of America. You might, for instance, believe (as President Obama does) that we are in fact NOT at war with Islamic Religious Extremists and Terrorists! There is no Global War on Terror, etc., etc.

[tricky]

Originally Posted by PETA

Hey... that's Obama's "good war."

Think GW was wise to topple the Taliban and for the most part... get the fuck out? Think Obama is wise with his wish to escalate? If 300,000 Russians with zero supply line issues couldn't hold it why should we with less than 100,000?

It is a nightmare of logistics. We need to maintain a small seek and destroy presence that prevents any safe establishment of AQ or other terror groups... and otherwise let the Afgans deal with Afganistan... the greater worry is, of course, destabilizing Pakistan and their fucking nukes.

....

Originally Posted by FarangBa

Well Fees, that depends on where you stand on the basic issues at hand. -Do you believe that Al Qaeda (headed by Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al Zawahiri) attacked NYC and the Pentagon from their Terrorist training base in Afghanistan?
-Do you believe that the Taliban (Religious Islamic extremists themselves) allowed Al Qaeda to move their camps from the Sudan to Afghanistan?
-Do you believe Terrorism Exists?
-Do you believe we are at war with Terrorists?

You see, I have to know where you stand on the issue before giving my opinon, because If you don't believe in the basic tenants that most Americans believe... there's no point responding because you are not in step with the rest of America. You might, for instance, believe (as President Obama does) that we are in fact NOT at war with Islamic Religious Extremists and Terrorists! There is no Global War on Terror, etc., etc.

LOL. we're fighting terrorists? i never knew.

ps.

you're a fucking puppet. you wouldn't know what independent thought was if it bit you and the ass. puppet...maybe a parrot too...since you just repeat whatever your simpleton mind has been told...

[FarangBa]

Originally Posted by tricky

....



LOL. we're fighting terrorists? i never knew.

ps.

you're a fucking puppet. you wouldn't know what independent thought was if it bit you and the ass. puppet...maybe a parrot too...since you just repeat whatever your simpleton mind has been told...

This coming from you.. who has never done a thing for his country but take, take, take... is not surprising really.

Good job at changing the subject though.. uh... which one is that by the way?

is that rule seven or rule eight... I forget ?

Ridicule and denigrate the individual, because individuals with break before the organization does. Keep up the pressure, cloud the issue with irrelevant facts, etc., etc.

So, I posed the questions to Fees... but you can feel free to answer them as well.

[tricky]

Originally Posted by FarangBa

This coming from you.. who has never done a thing for his country but take, take, take... is not surprising really.

Good job at changing the subject though.. uh... which one is that by the way?

is that rule seven or rule eight... I forget ?



So, I posed the questions to Fees... but you can feel free to answer them as well.

are we gonna get in a pissing match as to "what we've done for this country"

isnt that rule 3 or 4....?

[DJPePe]

Originally Posted by Keith P

Strategic standpoint and we don't. Afghanistan is dirt poor, there's hardly any educated living there. That country is going to need oversight for a long time.

Bamiyan would beg to differ.

[J. Fees]

Originally Posted by FarangBa

Well Fees, that depends on where you stand on the basic issues at hand. -Do you believe that Al Qaeda (headed by Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al Zawahiri) attacked NYC and the Pentagon from their Terrorist training base in Afghanistan?
-Do you believe that the Taliban (Religious Islamic extremists themselves) allowed Al Qaeda to move their camps from the Sudan to Afghanistan?
-Do you believe Terrorism Exists?
-Do you believe we are at war with Terrorists?

You see, I have to know where you stand on the issue before giving my opinon, because If you don't believe in the basic tenants that most Americans believe... there's no point responding because you are not in step with the rest of America. You might, for instance, believe (as President Obama does) that we are in fact NOT at war with Islamic Religious Extremists and Terrorists! There is no Global War on Terror, etc., etc.

all that has nothing to do with what im talking about.

other than what keith said, we're there for strategic position, what can really be done. Its a world away and we're not helping the average person over there by blowing the shit out of their country. WHAT about the flood of heroin that came after we desposed of the taliban. WHAT about letting out the drug warlords out of prison? the U.S. doesn't have the money to go help out some people on the other side of the world, that dont want our help.

If texas was in the middle of a civil war, would you want Afghanistan coming over and interfering in your business?

[Keith P]

Originally Posted by DJPePe

Bamiyan would beg to differ.

Yeh you're right, Afghanistan is churning out the next Berkeley. We need to make it safe for kids to go to school, keep the local tribal leaders in line, and not let the taliban bully people around when they decide to use their brain.

That should've been the focus for the past 8 years of war.