America the superpower melts down

[Funkenstein]

Originally Posted by PETA

'splain how?

1) our debt controls the economies of the world

2) our language is the internation language of trade and diplomacy and the interwebs

3) our culture is imported, mimicked, copied and otherwise gobbled up

4) our geographic position leaves us vulnerable to pretty much nothing but gradual acculteraion from the south

where's the decline?

1) And being that the two are tied, the quick rise of the Euro and the even joking mention of bringing the yuan (sp?) up as something to run against should make eyes bat.

2) For now, but having been both a Texan and Californian, you know the incoming drive for Spanish/Chinese (Mandarin)/Japanese that is to occur I'd say even within the next decade.

3) And in being copied, we sometimes get outwhataburgered. Look to Japan/Taiwan/Korea for beating us in the car game, the numerous parts and perks of outsourcing that is STILL occurring in 2009, and then follow that with the amount of people leaning to treatment (healthcare) abroad (see India) due to inflated costs here. Prohibitive costs and shitty attitudes are driving business away FROM America.

4) We can sit here and enjoy this land, but if we become the new Russia, what good does it do us? (I say that jokingly because I know that it would take a LOT for us to get to that level, so go ahead and save that "No way" speech, ).

There you go.

[PETA]

my goddamn reply got swallowed by the internets beasts in the tubes - you get short version this time

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

1) And being that the two are tied, the quick rise of the Euro and the even joking mention of bringing the yuan (sp?) up as something to run against should make eyes bat.

europe is dying - they have fewer and fewer paying for more and more retirees and state depenents... its not sustainable

china - see previous comments. They're gonna have huge problems.

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

2) For now, but having been both a Texan and Californian, you know the incoming drive for Spanish/Chinese (Mandarin)/Japanese that is to occur I'd say even within the next decade.

Lingua franca is one language... shared by many as a common tongue. You propose three which fails the principle purpose. The commonwealth nations are emerging nations around the globe - most importantly India and their billion english speakers. Plus, a qwerty keyboard is a lot easier to deal with than kana script or pictographs.

English is the international language of diplomacy and trade for a reason... it is more commonly shared across the globe than any other language by orders of magnitude. That's not changing in any direction except to accelerate. English speaking states have markets others want. Supply speaks to demand.

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

3) And in being copied, we sometimes get outwhataburgered. Look to Japan/Taiwan/Korea for beating us in the car game, the numerous parts and perks of outsourcing that is STILL occurring in 2009, and then follow that with the amount of people leaning to treatment (healthcare) abroad (see India) due to inflated costs here. Prohibitive costs and shitty attitudes are driving business away FROM America.

Japan's economy is fragile after a dozen years of recession. Their model of capitalization is less innovative than ours. They seek to service debt rather than enrich bond and shareholders. They have a cratering population and a social system that looks like europe's... fewer paying for more. They do sell cars.... many made in Mexico and the US. They also outsource much of their production. And, they are as insular as any nation on the globe 98.5% ethnically Japanese. I don't see their immigration/naturalization policies changing any time soon. The power vacuum their retreat from the world creates will be an issue.

The rest of the Tigers saw great growth but they're relatively insignificant (combined) compared to say.... Texas.

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

4) We can sit here and enjoy this land, but if we become the new Russia, what good does it do us? (I say that jokingly because I know that it would take a LOT for us to get to that level, so go ahead and save that "No way" speech, ).

And you say that quizzically... our histories in terms of politics, economics, culture, etc etc are so disparate that I require explanation brother.

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

There you go.

there you - un-go

I await your riposte.

[Funkenstein]

Originally Posted by PETA

my goddamn reply got swallowed by the internets beasts in the tubes - you get short version this time

Short version? Pull the other leg, Brian II.

Originally Posted by PETA

europe is dying - they have fewer and fewer paying for more and more retirees and state depen[d]ents... its not sustainable

I can't factually battle this one, but to my rough understanding of things back during the 5 years after 9/11 Europe (namely Germany) rose up and took the reins of things for at least a year long period (after the creation of the Euro). I don't think I dreamed that period of time.

Originally Posted by PETA

Lingua franca is one language... shared by many as a common tongue . . .That's not changing in any direction except to accelerate. English speaking states have markets others want. Supply speaks to demand.

That's what I am challenging. Let me say it outright: The need to diversify may change out the thought of having one language (outside of the almighty power of printed paper). I can seriously say I can see that changing within the next quarter century. Ask our friend DA about his want to delve into Mandarin or Ms. Deff Gordon's need to be able to speak it for business opportunity (not just for enlightenment I'm sure).

Originally Posted by PETA

Japan's economy is fragile after a dozen years of recession. Their model of capitalization is less innovative than ours. They seek to service debt rather than enrich bond and shareholders. They have a cratering population and a social system that looks like europe's... fewer paying for more. They do sell cars.... many made in Mexico and the US.

Originally Posted by PETA

there you - un-go

I await your riposte.

There it is. I'm still red-blooded American and not willing to sell my country out, BUT I do realize that there are a host of challenges to staying at the top of the heap that may be a little more apparent than it seems. Diversifying never hurt anyone, so I'm ready to do so and able to embrace it a little easier than most.

QUICK EDIT: WTF. My Japan answer disappeared. Txt ghosts ate some of my words as well it seems. This is why America is breaking down.



Long story short on that one: Japan outsources and yet still makes their money in spades. Not a lot of room on the island chain to create/export with without upsetting their natural balance with the environment, so they are winning the game on a lot of fronts (in my opinion).

[zcwilly]

State Vs Country GDP Map

[PETA]

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

I can't factually battle this one, but to my rough understanding of things back during the 5 years after 9/11 Europe (namely Germany) rose up and took the reins of things for at least a year long period (after the creation of the Euro). I don't think I dreamed that period of time.

The reins of what thing for five years and why is that important?

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

That's what I am challenging. Let me say it outright: The need to diversify may change out the thought of having one language (outside of the almighty power of printed paper). I can seriously say I can see that changing within the next quarter century. Ask our friend DA about his want to delve into Mandarin or Ms. Deff Gordon's need to be able to speak it for business opportunity (not just for enlightenment I'm sure).

Your theory disregards a few thousand years of history where dominant languages emerge as the common tongue. It may not be the first of most but it'll be the second of nearly all. It is of no use to have five or six be the second because it'd second through sixth. English, as fucked up a language as it is is that common tongue and on a much broader scale than ever before seen. Hell there are more english speakers in China than in the US iirc. That serves to make the point.

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

There it is. I'm still red-blooded American and not willing to sell my country out, BUT I do realize that there are a host of challenges to staying at the top of the heap that may be a little more apparent than it seems. Diversifying never hurt anyone, so I'm ready to do so and able to embrace it a little easier than most.

But you've offered no reason to support the notion that we'll be toppled from the top of the hill in termsd of economy, language or military. Of course relationships between states change over time and wise diplomacy will seek out those relationships which most benefit ours.

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

QUICK EDIT: WTF. My Japan answer disappeared. Txt ghosts ate some of my words as well it seems. This is why America is breaking down.



Long story short on that one: Japan outsources and yet still makes their money in spades.

See, that's what I don't think you're getting. No they don't. They have a much more fragile economy than we do. They debt finance through loans from banks rather than IPOs and Bond issues. They are less innovative and have little incentive for profit beyond paying the mortgage. Remember the 80s when everyone thought Japan would own the world by the year 2000? Didn't happen did it. And the fall was swift and long. American corporations have to answer to pissed off shareholders who demand a return. The Japanese government for the past decade essentially forced banks to loan to Japanese businesses teetering (and toppling) to keep their heads barely above water. What we've had the last 18 months they had for 12 years.

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

Not a lot of room on the island chain to create/export with without upsetting their natural balance with the environment, so they are winning the game on a lot of fronts (in my opinion).

Yeah, well, in 50 years they'll really be winning it because Japan will have half as many people and that number will exponentially shrink as the years pass unless they discover how to start having babies.

Now, it is possible that they can become an island of engineers and financeers (and a gamma class of service industry people asking if you want fries with that) who have everything built elsewhere and make good coin but that is quite specifically the model everyone claims is unsustainable in the US. Why should it work in Japan?

[Funkenstein]

Originally Posted by PETA

The reins of what thing for five years and why is that important?

The idea that the dollar was challenged (for that long a time) was what I was marking as important. I'm no market analyst by any means, but since things are always volatile, that length means that we were in serious trouble if it took that long to come back from.

Originally Posted by PETA

But you've offered no reason to support the notion that we'll be toppled from the top of the hill in terms of economy, language or military. Of course relationships between states change over time and wise diplomacy will seek out those relationships which most benefit ours.

It's nothing new for me to fly in the face of things like that, PETA.

Language challenge by way of our influx from South of the border is growing and causing fear enough. Enough to start spelling out Estados Unidos? No, but paranoia inducing to many already.

Beating our military? Only if we have an insider sell us out.

The economy thing I'd have to go back and get some of the magazines I had from the time that I was keen on reading that lent to my earlier thoughts. Will try to find them before I run into you in person again so you can point out the fallacy in thought OR see where I was coming from. I acquired a lot of US News and World Reports before I left EDS (probably enough to challenge your old NatGeo stuff).

Originally Posted by PETA

See, that's what I don't think you're getting. No they don't.

I guess I'm going off on wild suppositions then. Again, I have no problem stating that I could be wrong. Doing a little reading up on their car market (only one part of it all, I understand) before I say more in that regard.

Originally Posted by PETA

Yeah, well, in 50 years they'll really be winning it because Japan will have half as many people and that number will exponentially shrink as the years pass unless they discover how to start having babies.

And tons of free space to use for resale.

[PETA]

I hit the wrong button.... erased reply... very angry... gott dammit

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

The idea that the dollar was challenged (for that long a time) was what I was marking as important. I'm no market analyst by any means, but since things are always volatile, that length means that we were in serious trouble if it took that long to come back from.

David doesn't know shit

Here's my analysis. If the dollar is to be replaced something must replace it. No one has offered anything more than a colorable argument to the question. That means it passed the giggle test but did not rise to the level of a rebuttable presumption. It is an issue worth discussing, not worth fearing.

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

It's nothing new for me to fly in the face of things like that, PETA.

So your mother tells me

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

Language challenge by way of our influx from South of the border is growing and causing fear enough. Enough to start spelling out Estados Unidos? No, but paranoia inducing to many already.

Paranoia at best.

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

Beating our military? Only if we have an insider sell us out.

not gonna happen

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

The economy thing I'd have to go back and get some of the magazines I had from the time that I was keen on reading that lent to my earlier thoughts. Will try to find them before I run into you in person again so you can point out the fallacy in thought OR see where I was coming from. I acquired a lot of US News and World Reports before I left EDS (probably enough to challenge your old NatGeo stuff).

National Geographic has pretty pictures and weak facts. I gave up my subscription after reading some clanky sounding comments that I researched. Their fact checkers suck ass.

Japan's decade long recession is no mysterious matter.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanes...t_price_bubble

The Japanese asset price bubble (バブル景気, baburu keiki?, lit. "bubble economy") was an economic bubble in Japan from 1986 to 1990, in which real estate and stock prices greatly inflated.[1] The bubble's collapse lasted for more than a decade with stock prices bottoming in 2003, until hitting an even lower low amidst the current global crisis in 2008.

In the decades following World War II, Japan implemented stringent tariffs and policies to encourage people to save their income. With more money in banks, loans and credit became easier to obtain, and with Japan running large trade surpluses, the yen appreciated against foreign currencies. This allowed local companies to invest in capital resources much more easily than their competitors overseas, which reduced the price of Japanese-made goods and widened the trade surplus further. And, with the yen appreciating, financial assets became very lucrative.[2]

With so much money readily available for investment, speculation was inevitable, particularly in the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the real estate market. The Nikkei stock index hit its all-time high on December 29, 1989 when it reached an intra-day high of 38,957.44 before closing at 38,915.87. Additionally, banks granted increasingly risky loans.
Prices were highest in Tokyo's Ginza district in 1989, with choice properties fetching over 100 million yen (approximately $1 million US dollars) per square meter ($93,000 per square foot). Prices were only marginally less in other large business districts of Tokyo. By 2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts had slumped to less than 1 percent of its peak, and Tokyo's residential homes were less than a tenth of their peak, but still managed to be listed as the most expensive in the world until being surpassed in the late 2000s by Moscow and other cities. Tens of trillions of dollars worth were wiped out with the combined collapse of the Tokyo stock and real estate markets. Only in 2007 had property prices begun to rise; however, they began to fall in late 2008 due to the financial crisis.

With the economy driven by its high rates of reinvestment, this crash hit particularly hard. Investments were increasingly directed out of the country, and manufacturing firms lost some degree of their technological edge. As Japanese products became less competitive overseas, the low consumption rate began to bear on the economy, causing a deflationary spiral. The Japanese Central Bank set interest rates at approximately zero. When that failed to stop deflation some economists, such as Paul Krugman, and some Japanese politicians, advocated inflation targeting.[3]
The easily obtainable credit that had helped create and engorge the real estate bubble continued to be a problem for several years to come, and as late as 1997, banks were still making loans that had a low probability of being repaid. Loan Officers and Investment staff had a hard time finding anything to invest in that would return a profit. They would sometimes resort to depositing their block of investment cash, as ordinary deposits, in a competing bank, which would bring howls of complaint from that bank's Loan Officers and Investment staff. Correcting the credit problem became even more difficult as the government began to subsidize failing banks and businesses, creating many so-called "zombie businesses". Eventually a carry trade developed in which money was borrowed from Japan, invested for returns elsewhere and then the Japanese were paid back, with a nice profit for the trader.

The time after the bubble's collapse (崩壊, hōkai?), which occurred gradually rather than catastrophically, is known as the "lost decade or end of the century" (失われた10年, ushinawareta jūnen?) in Japan. In October 2008 the Nikkei 225 stock index reached a 26-year low of 6994.90.

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

I guess I'm going off on wild suppositions then. Again, I have no problem stating that I could be wrong. Doing a little reading up on their car market (only one part of it all, I understand) before I say more in that regard.

see above italicized text.... fact is most Americans have been oblivious to the tanked Japanese economy because we like Lexuses and Hello Kitty

Originally Posted by Funkenstein

And tons of free space to use for resale.

To whom? At how much more of a deflated price? See italicized comments above

[davinci]

they also said obesity is a national security threat... so everyone stop being big lol... jk

[PETA]

only to fat people... besides, when the shit comes down we'll probably need them for sustenance

[david austin]

Japan is an interesting animal.

Decreasing population.
A society geared to save.
Government needing to issue debt to sustain.

Oddly... one of Japans biggest issues is that they dont spend enough.

Government is such a high percentage of GDP and their debt to GDP ratio is maaaasive.

In the end this is all about societal expectation regarding the idea of an 'investment'. As long as people expect double digit returns year after year we will always have asset bubbles. Until we as a society understand that life isnt a big get rich quick scheme we will kill ourselves by blinding following the idea that one should always reach for the low hanging fruit... Only to be struck by lightning.

The easy way is to inflate and perpetuate. Its works when you are the one and only, but when challengers (albeit still small in the rear view) arise... Old strategies prove futile.

[PETA]

Originally Posted by david austin

Japan is an interesting animal.

Decreasing population.
A society geared to save.
Government needing to issue debt to sustain.

Oddly... one of Japans biggest issues is that they dont spend enough.

You mean the people right? Because the gov't's decade long Keynsian fiasco sure didn't help.

Originally Posted by david austin

Government is such a high percentage of GDP and their debt to GDP ratio is maaaasive.

In the end this is all about societal expectation regarding the idea of an 'investment'. As long as people expect double digit returns year after year we will always have asset bubbles. Until we as a society understand that life isnt a big get rich quick scheme we will kill ourselves by blinding following the idea that one should always reach for the low hanging fruit... Only to be struck by lightning.

Our economy (Japan's to a similar but lesser extent) is a super tanker. It takes mighty effort for small changes but those small changes are profound.

People will probably always expect big short swing gains but that, as you note, ain't reasonable. Permitting bubbles is in effect subsidizing unreasonable expectations. Fixing that, who knows, perhaps economic pain of market correction with less government effort to reinflate the bubbles?

Originally Posted by david austin

The easy way is to inflate and perpetuate. Its works when you are the one and only, but when challengers (albeit still small in the rear view) arise... Old strategies prove futile.

I should read your whole post before responding....