how does it start?

[Westbound]

any amatuer analyists want to take shot at how this whole mess in the middle east starts?

my guess is that Iraq will begin the festivities in the next 36 hours with some well placed missiles into isreal. this should be fun, as isreal has promised they would not play nice like the UN wants if missiles fall.

I would not be at all surprised to see the air war start... now. Western Iraq is going to get the crap pounded out of it as we try to prevent Iraq from launching missiles against Israel. Air defenses in the southern no-fly zone will be equally hammered.

Whether or not we can stop Iraq from launching missiles at Israel remains to be seen, but I don't exactly havealot of confidence that it can be prevented.

Be interesting to get Warlord's take on this one.

[Hey Bubu]

While we wait for Warlord, here's my take.
The 48 hours notice lets us do a couple of thing, finalyze the mobilatation of major troops and advance the move of special ops troops that will be in charge
of A) Laser marking major targets B) Making sure oil wells don't get detonated C) Infiltrating high risk escape routes that Saddam might have.
The 48 hours will also help Turkey in making up their minds to see if they will let us advance, as well as giving Australian troops enough time to deploy. On Saddams side, he is already hiding and preparing ground and air defenses closer to Baghdad. He has a better chance of causing more damage to us, with his troops closer in proximity to cities than leaving them out on the open. Urban warfare I believe is what he is going to go for. High civilian casualties will be blamed on us. At the first sight of infiltration from our troops he will begin whatever attack on israel and on us that he has planned. I really doubt that he cares for his people and he won't mind taking heavy casualties on his side, as long as he is safe he's all good.
More later, as I wake up and try to guess what he might do. He will wait for us to make the first move.
I am not counting any "terrorist" activity on this plan either. Which is surely to play a big role.

[Hey Bubu]

So we have a nice overview as to what our troops might do, and I am sure that we will have to infiltrate Baghdad at some point, no war has ever been won by aerial supremacy IE: Vietnam.

Now given Saddams forces and resources what do you think he will do once we start moving in?

Once we start moving in: he will likely hit key oil sites, attempt attacks on Israel (though this is only partially likely as there have been no recorded movements towards that region so far as I know), and ultimately use heavy biochem warfare as our troops move into Baghdad. If he has the capability, he could possibly launch attacks towards the south where our ground troops will be coming from. I don't know if he will or not, but he would be unwise to worry too much about the north/Kurdistan where Turkish troops will be committing atrocious acts against the Kurds (the ones that we keep accusing Saddam of killing off). Of course, if he were wise he would have further supported terrorist groups in Palestine and neighbouring countries over the past months to help do some of the dirty work against our forces. It will be guerilla warfare on their part.

We'll see, though. Only time and untold of destruction will paint the morbid picture correctly.

[Adam D]

Here's the way I see it.

In the opening hours of war, the US will hold true to it's comment, that thousands of missiles will be launched within the first hours. These will rain down primarily to "decapitate" Iraq (to cut off the command, control, and communications systems), decimate the remaining air defense systems and troop barracks, and to a lesser extent bomb cities, with Baghdad receiving the least to protect our journalists. Next, air support will take off to cover the troops advancing from the south, which will also launch thousands of depleted uranium shells across southern Iraq. Troops will march towards Baghdad and the west, where the Ba'ath party is strongest.

Iraq will respond by launching counteroffensive missiles at the oncoming troops and will call for palestinean terrorists to begin a wave of terror across Israel. Unable to maintain internal security, Israel will focus on the Palestinean attackers and will provide little, if any, support to the war. Iraqi troops will move into position to defend Baghdad from the south, but will be slaughtered by US-led forces due to lack of morale and attempts to surrender. Kurds in the north will begin ethnic cleansing, met by Turkish troops that will try to oppress them, as well as an Iranian attempt to cleanse itself of Kurds as well.

Turkey will decide to support US-led forces, and will allow use of military bases in exchange for turning a blind eye and/or assistance in eliminating the Kurds. This will begin the northern offense. Allied forces will begin surrounding Baghdad after securing the oil fields blown up by US missiles. Iraqi missiles will continue to fire from Baghdad in an attempt to repel US-led forces. Bombing of Baghdad will intensify, leveling most of the city.

The Republican Guard will be massacred, either in combat or trying to escape. US casualties will be highest in combat here, where even civilians will join in the combat. Eventually, US-led forces will take over Baghdad. But Hussein and the leading Ba'ath party officials are not there. Attention will first turn to Taskrit (I belive that's the right spelling), Hussein's hometown, and eventually to the remaining palaces not secured by allied forces already. Eventually, Hussein will be captured and tried by a US war crimes court, will be found guilty, and executed.

Here's an interactive map on Time magazines website on what they believe will happen.

http://www.time.com/time/covers/1101030317/map/

[Westbound]

i figure that we'll find out if Iraq procured any nuclear weapons once the troops cross the southern border. i haven't heard of any evidence of nuclear capabilities, but i do know that our intelligence isn't the best. i assume that bio-chemical weapons will be used well south of bagdad, as hussien knows that killing 4 or 5 million of his own people in bagdad would be a major blunder on his part. after all, can't call yourself a ruler if you kill everyone you rule.

One thing will be interesting... when we go in (there's no "if" now, I don't think), and when we find "interesting" things, the other nations will backpeddle... it should be fun to watch them all waffle and put the spin on it. Same goes for Tom "Puffy" Daschle...

[Adam D]

Why? All they would have to say is:


Had you let inspections continue, they would have been destroyed without life lost.

[Element4040]

Adam, that is what baffles me though man. Why do so many people and nations continue with that thought. If he wanted to comply he has had ample opportunity to do it. I don't see how that can be used as a rational argument, but some how it is. Alot of people will believe and say that exact thing.

But I ask why do they think that it will work? 12 Years people, 12 years.

The last 4 months, there was an ultimatem laid out, he ignored it. I don't get it?

Even after he uses Chem/Bio weapons against our troops, I'm sure you will have a vast majority of people saying that same thing. I mean how much proof is needed that he has no intention of giving up his leadership or WMD's.

[Element4040]

Originally posted by WarLord
None of the nations involved in the Security Council deliberations argued the fact that Iraq may have such weapons.

They argued the methodolgy adopted by the U.S. to address the situation.

It was never an issue of IF they were there, but of HOW to eliminate them.

Agreed, but I still don't see how people can make the statement that the current inspections where working.

And to be honest with you, I don't agree 100% with the way the U.S. is going about it either. But I agree a whole lot less with the way the UN was handling it! Worthless, talk, talk, talk. Give us a different proposition maybe, put more inspectors in. ... something. All we got was a big political mess about who's vetoeing who.

Let me add one more thing on the subject also. France, totally opposed to the use of force and threatening to veto a 2nd resolution no matter what. But oh hey, today we get a quote from them stating that if Iraq using Chem/Bio against us they will jump in. WTF is that, that makes no sense to me at all. They need to make up their mind.

[Adam D]

Makes sense to me. If Iraq has no WMDs then there is no reason to strike. If they do (and positive proof would come is using them) then it would violate UN resolutions and the UN nations would be called to arms.

[Westbound]

well, looks like i was off on that one.